Prescriptions of HCV market leader Mavyret halves in 1 yr

Prescription performance in Q3 KRW 3.7 billion... A 52% YoY drop compared to KRW 7.8 billion

Market size shrinks due to a decrease in patients... Reduced to 1/4th in 5 years

Also impacted by the rise of its competitors Epclusa and Vosevi… Mavyret’s market share falls from 84% to 57%

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Outpatient prescription performance of ‘Mavyret,’ the No.

 

1 product in the hepatitis C treatment market, has shrunk to less than half in just 1 year.

 

In addition to the decrease in overall market size due to the decline in hepatitis C patients, Mavyret’s newly released competitors 'Epclusa' and ‘Vosevi’ have been rapidly expanding their influence in the market.

 

According to the market research institution UBIST on the 8th, outpatient prescriptions of Mavyret in Q3 amounted to KRW 3.7 billion.

 

This is a 52% decrease in 1 year compared to the KRW 7.8 billion it had posted in Q3 last year.

 

Mavyret is a pan-genotypic hepatitis C treatment that was released by AbbVie.

 

Since its release in Q3 2018, it quickly replaced Sovaldi and Harvoni which previously led the market.

 

‘Mavyret.’ can be used for patients with hepatitis C virus types 1 to 6, while Harvoni cannot be used for types 3 and Sovaldi cannot be used for types 5 and 6.

 

The long treatment period of 12 weeks for Harvoni and Sovladi, compared to 8 weeks for Mavyret, also served as a weakness for Harvoni and Sovaldi.

 

Mavyret’s share in the HCV treatment market share rose vertically from 3% in Q3 2018 to 56% in Q4.

 

Subsequently, its market share exceeded 60% in Q1 2019 and then 70% in Q2 of the same year.

 

Subsequently, its market share steadily increased and expanded to more than 80% in Q3 last year.

 

Contrary to its expanded market share, prescription performance has been declining since 2019.

 

Mavyret’s prescription performance, which recorded KRW 41.5 billion in 2019, decreased for 3 consecutive years to KRW 34.4 billion in 2020, KRW 32.8 billion in 2021, then to 31.2 billion won in 2022.

 

Quarterly prescription performance of major hepatitis C treatments (Unit: KRW 100 million, Data UBIST)

The analysis is that this is due to the steadily shrinking overall market size.

 

The size of the HCV treatment market has steadily decreased from KRW 135.3 billion in 2017 to KRW 73.7 billion in 2018, then to KRW 65.1 billion in 2019, and KRW 47.4 billion in 2020, KRW 35.1 billion in 2021, then to KRW 34.2 billion in 2022.

 

Compared to 2017, when the market had expanded to its maximum, the market had shrunk to a quarter in 5 years.

 

The industry pointed to the characteristics held by the HCV treatments as a cause of the market contraction.

 

Before the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) like Mavyret, HCV had been a very critical disease.

 

However, the treatment effect of HCV drugs had increased dramatically with the introduction of BMS’s Daklinza and Sunvepra.

 

With Gilead Sciences' Sovaldi and Harvoni, MSD’s Zepatier, and Abbvie’s Mavyret that followed, the treatment effect had further increased.

 

Ironically, as these new treatments offer an effect high enough to be close to a complete cure, the market size quickly contracted with the number of patients being prescribed the drug increasing within the finite number of patients in the market.

 

As a result, the market size is shrinking.

 

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The entry of its competitors also affected the decline in Mavyret’s prescription performance.

 

Gilead Sciences released Epclusa and Vosevi as next-generation hepatitis C treatments in November last year.

 

The combined prescription performance of the two products is on the rise, reaching KRW 300 million in Q4 last year, then KRW 1.6 billion in Q1 of this year, KRW 2.7 billion in Q2, then to KRW 2.5 billion in Q3.

 

During the same period, the market share of the two products had rapidly expanded from 4% to 19%, 34%, then 39%.

 

If the current trend continues, it is predicted that it will surpass Mavyret and become a leader in the hepatitis C treatment market within the next year.

 

However, like Mavyret, the fact that the overall market size is shrinking is expected to become a concern for Epclusa and Vosevi as well.